Relevance of Demographic Studies in Land Use Planning
The center of all our planning effort is
the people. We are much concerned about their various current and future needs.
These growing needs for goods and services spell the need to determine specific
and sufficient spaces for land and their efficient uses for the people to experience
quality of life. One must also understand that it is the people that cause
environmental and land use issues and problems. It is also the people that have
the capacity to manage the resources.
To ensure that this demand for land will
be efficiently addressed, it is important that demographics should be carefully
studied, specifically, the current figures, the characteristics or attributes
of the population of a particular area, its growth and movement or trend, as
these shape land uses encompassing years and decades.
To come up with various alternatives and
decisions in land use planning, knowledge about the demographics by the planners
and the community will be most useful.
Population Projection
Population projection is necessary to
determine the trend in increase of population in the coming years, say five or
ten years or more. This is important so as to determine the corresponding increase
in demand for economic goods, social services, infrastructures support and land
for various uses. With these calculations, planners and the decision-makers
will be able to make some assumptions as to what will be the issues and
concerns that would crop up in the future and as early as today prevent such
future problems. These will also help them assess as to how much resources or
fund should be raised to efficiently address such future needs. In other words,
population projection helps planners and the decision makers come up with a
solution before the arrival of a problem.
Two methods
for Projecting Future Population
There are different methods of
projecting future population. However, the HLURB CLUP Guide suggests the
combined use of Geometric and Participation
Rate methods as discussed below:
a. Geometric Method is a computation of three
factors including the base population, time interval and population after the
given time interval using the formula, Pn = Po (1+r)t where Po = base
population of an area, Pn = population of the area t years later, t = time
interval in calendar year between Po and Pn , and r = growth rate of population
per unit time. To compute growth rate, the formula can be rewritten into, r =(
ln [Po / Pn]) / t.
b. Participation Rate Method uses ratio or
percent share of a population segment of population to total population as
indicated on the sample formula, Participation Rate of working group =
Population of 15-64 y. o. / Total Population
Source: CLUP Guidebook Volume 2, 2014, p.183
